August 3, 2020
CALENDAR CONCERNS AND GOLD GAINS
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Real-time economic data continues to show a slowdown, at the same time we’re entering two months of the year that historically have been troublesome for stocks. Meanwhile, gold is breaking out to new all-time highs, confusing many as to what it all means. Stocks are likely due for a breather, but it isn’t out of the ordinary to see both gold and stocks trend higher together.
CALENDAR DOING NO FAVORS
Last week, we discussed why the stalling economic recovery could slow the stock market rally. This week, the calendar has our attention, as August and September historically have been troublesome months for stocks.
August and September have tended to be quite weak for stocks, with August ranking as the worst month of the year over the past decade [FIGURE 1]. August has been quite strong during election years previously, but after the best July for stocks since 2010, a little more caution may make sense.