February 22, 2021

SUSTAINABLE INVESTING YEAR IN REVIEW

Jason Hoody, CFA, Head of Investment Manager Research, LPL Financial

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Increasingly more people realize that their sustainability concerns can be address through their investments. As more investors embark on the sustainable investing journey—learn what it is, why one pursues it and how to do it—assets into sustainable funds will continue and investors will have more choices from which to construct sustainable investing portfolios.

Individuals and institutions are increasingly concerned about sustainability issues. A World Economic Forum survey from the fall of 2020 concluded that 79% of American respondents agreed with the following statement: “I want the world to change significantly and become more sustainable and equitable rather than returning to how it was before the COVID-19 crisis.” We take a look at the growth of investor interest in sustainable investing while answering some common questions about it.

WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE INVESTING

You may have heard various terms used to describe sustainable investing—socially responsible investing, ethical investing, impact investing, among others. Although each of these terms is relevant to specific financial industry actors, types of clients, investment strategies, or subsectors of activity, they fundamentally describe the same thing:

Investments made with the intention of generating a positive environmental, social, and governance (ESG) impact alongside a financial return.

Investors commonly use sustainable investing to pursue two overarching goals:

•To protect and enhance long-term financial value through addressing ESG risks or investing in solutions to solve environmental and social challenges.

•To protect, enhance, or otherwise positively impact the long-term health of the environment or society through expressing ESG values.

Some examples of ESG issues that may be considered in an investment strategy:

Environmental: Greenhouse gas emissions, energy management, and water and wastewater management.

Social: Access and affordability, labor relations, and diversity and inclusion.

Governance: Compensation and benefits, data security, and supply chain management.

March 1, 2021

HERE COMES THE EARNINGS BOOM

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Fourth-quarter earnings season is in the home stretch, and it’s been a good one. After raising our 2021 earnings forecast for the S&P 500 Index in our Weekly Market Commentary on February 8, our upgraded forecast may now be too low, based on what we have learned from corporate America during the three weeks since. In this commentary, we recap earnings season and share our latest thoughts on just how strong the earnings rebound could be in 2021 and beyond.

OUTSTANDING NUMBERS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER

Coming into fourth-quarter earnings season, investors had plenty of reasons to expect that companies would deliver better-than-expected results. The US economy grew at a solid 4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter (source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP data). Strong manufacturing surveys signaled better earnings ahead. Analysts’ earnings estimates rose during the quarter, as companies issuing fourth-quarter guidance mostly raised expectations.

Now that all the numbers are pretty much in the books (93% of S&P 500 companies have reported results), it’s clear that optimism was warranted as earnings impressively grew during the quarter [Figure 1].

In our earnings preview on January 19, 2021, we wrote:

Consider that the bar has been raised substantially over the past two quarters, making it tougher to clear. That probably takes  positive earnings growth off the table, but a low-to-mid single digit decline in earnings would be a positive outcome, especially if forward estimates hold up as fresh guidance is provided.

After the bar had been raised, with the prior two quarters following similarly strong results compared to expectations, it made a lot of sense to expect more limited upside as estimates catch up to reality. But it turned out another quarter of huge upside—and earnings growth—was in the cards as corporate America again blew by expectations. S&P 500 companies delivered more earnings during the still-pandemic plagued Q4 2020 than in (pre-pandemic) Q4 2019.

Here are the impressive numbers:

•Fourth-quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 is tracking to 3.5%, more than 12 percentage points above the consensus estimate at quarter-end (December 31, 2020).

•A near-record 79% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings estimates, above the five-year average of 74%.

•Five sectors grew their earnings by double-digits: communication services, financials, healthcare, materials, and information technology.

•Sales for S&P 500 companies in aggregate impressively rose more than 3% year over year.

•During earnings season, the consensus earnings estimate for the next 12 months rose 4%, compared with the average 2-3% reduction historically.

All earnings data is sourced from Fact Set

These results were particularly impressive given the wave of COVID-19 that brought some new targeted restrictions late last year.

January 11, 2021

MARKET POLICY PROJECTIONS FOR 2021

Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

As a result of the Senate runoffs in Georgia, Democrats are poised to take control of the US Senate, which would give them a majority in both houses of Congress. This will shift the policy outlook moderately to the left, but majorities are still razor-thin, giving moderates heavy influence. We also envision a potential move toward increased bipartisanship, which may help bring more clarity to policy in 2021.

GEORGIA ON OUR MIND

Assuming the Georgia Senate races play out in line with the current vote count, Democrats will soon have control of both chambers of Congress as well as the presidency, at least until mid-term elections in 2022. While there is a material difference between the Senate flipping to Democratic control and Republicans holding the Senate, we don’t believe it’s a radical shift.

The Democrat’s Senate majority will be razor thin, with the Senate split 50–50 and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris casting any tie-breaking vote. That means legislation will need to satisfy the most moderate Democratic Senators, such as West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and Montana’s Jon Tester. If Democrats lose votes from the left wing of their party, they will need to pull in moderate Republicans as well. With such a narrow margin, eliminating the filibuster is basically off the table. On many key legislative issues, Senate Democrats will need to muster 60 votes. The Democratic majority in the US House also narrowed significantly in the 2020 election and currently stands at 222–211 with two vacancies, creating a similar challenge.

LITTLE THINGS MATTER IN POLICY

Historically, which party occupied the White House or controlled Congress hasn’t had a meaningful impact on broad stock market performance. Policy matters—but larger economic forces are much more influential, and businesses are very good at adapting to different political environments. Having an environment where it’s easier to start or run a business can make a big difference in people’s lives, but the policy impact on markets tends to be more focused.

Markets historically have seemed to prefer divided government, whether because it removes the extremes or it encourages a spirit of compromise. At the same time, market performance when Democrats have held the presidency and controlled both the House and the Senate has been in line with longer-term historical returns [Figure 1]. The distribution of power in Washington, DC, by itself does not mean a lot, especially since voters have the chance to change the balance of power every two years.

January 4, 2021

10 ECONOMIC LESSONS FROM 2020

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

2020 was a year characterized in part by the outbreak of a global pandemic, which captivated the world and shocked the global economy and financial markets. As we turn the page to 2021, it can be helpful to reflect on the lessons learned from such a historic year. We offer 10 economic lessons we’ll remember from 2020.

A YEAR TO REMEMBER

To say that 2020 was a unique year would be an understatement. What began as an ordinary year quickly turned into an extraordinary one—does anyone even remember it was a leap year? Initial reports in early January noted that a novel virus was beginning to spread, but few at the time could comprehend how the situation would escalate. By March, the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the entire world. So after such a tumultuous year, what have we learned?

10 TAKEAWAYS FROM 2020

The world is full of surprises. When we published our Outlook 2020 in December 2019, we did not forecast a recession in the United States. Heading into 2020, the economy was growing modestly—we didn’t see the usual extremes like excessive spending or over leverage that have been the hallmarks of the end of past economic cycles. The outbreak of COVID-19 forced the economy to slam on the brakes as much of the world went into lockdown to contain the spread, ending the longest economic expansion ever—one that had lasted more than 10 years.

December 21, 2020

A NEW ECONOMIC START IN 2021

Barry Gilbert, CFA, PhD, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

After modest growth to begin 2020, the economy screeched to a halt as the onset of the pandemic ended the longest economic expansion ever. A record decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter was followed by record GDP growth in the third quarter as the economy emerged from lock downs. After such a tumultuous year in 2020, we take a look at what’s in store for the economy in 2021.

2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

As we turn the page to 2021, we expect real GDP growth in the United States of 4–4.5%, modestly outpacing our forecast of 3.75%–4.25% for our developed international counterparts. Emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, have fared better in controlling the outbreak of COVID-19, and we believe their economies may be in a better position heading into 2021. We forecast 5–5.5% real GDP growth for emerging markets.

After GDP contracted an annualized 5% during the first quarter of 2020 and then a record 31% in the second quarter, the economy revved back up with a 33% jump in the third quarter, bouncing off depressed levels. Record fiscal and monetary stimulus helped provide additional fuel for the economy as it emerged from lock downs. We expected the 2020 recession would be one of the shortest recessions ever, and although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has yet to declare it officially, the recession probably lasted less than six months.

When the economy began to shift into gear in the second half of 2020, we believe a new economic expansion likely began. Dating back to WWII, economic expansions have lasted more than five years on average, with the past four expansions averaging more than eight years [Figure 1].

December 7, 2020

A POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

November 30, 2020

COVID-19 MAY THREATEN THE RECOVERY

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

A new wave of COVID-19 cases threatens to trip up the economy. Increasing cases in Europe and the United States have brought new restrictions on activities, but the market doesn’t appear to be fazed by the recent outbreaks. Progress on developing vaccines has provided a clear boost to sentiment, but prospects for a divided Congress and the potential for more fiscal policy support also may be playing a role.

NEW WAVE OF COVID-19

Just as the economic recovery was beginning to gain some steam, COVID-19 cases have been rising dramatically in several regions around the world [FIGURE 1]. The change of seasons is adding to concerns, as colder weather shifts more activities indoors—increasing the chances of viral transmissions. This has prompted many governments to take greater action to try to curb the spread of COVID-19. Several countries and many states in the United States have rolled back reopening plans and implemented new restrictions such as school closures, nighttime curfews, and even stay-at-home orders.

November 23, 2020

FROTHY SENTIMENT RIDES BULLISH TECHNICALS

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Scott Brown, CMT, Senior Analyst, LPL Financial

The post-election environment and positive developments toward a COVID-19 vaccine have led to a surge in stock prices. The added clarity on these two fronts has boosted sentiment, which may present a risk in the near term as stock prices are near all-time highs.

A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER

The reaction from stocks since the US election has been truly impressive. The S&P 500 Index is up 8.8% for the month, on pace to be the best November for the S&P 500 in 40 years. Small caps have also soared, with the Russell 2000 Index up 16%, which would be its second-best month ever. Although we remain longer-term bullish on equities, there are some signs that sentiment could be getting a little frothy at the moment, which could increase the odds of a pullback.

TECHNICALS SUPPORTIVE OF FUTURE STRENGTH

On November 9, more than 71% of the stocks in the S&P 500 hit a one-month high, the third-highest reading using data back to 1990. Not only does this tell us that participation in the post-election rally has been extremely broad and not limited to only a few heavily weighted names in the index, but historically this has been an extremely positive signal for the next year. Returns can be quite weak in the near term after more than 65% of stocks reach a one-month high, but returns over the next 12 months not only have been far above average, but have been positive in all seven observed instances [Figure 1].

November 16, 2020

Q3 RESULTS BRIGHTEN 2021 PICTURE

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Corporate America delivered quite an encore to a surprisingly good second quarter earnings season with more of the same in the third quarter, despite a higher bar. S&P 500 Index companies didn’t quite match the biggest upside surprise ever—but they came close. We’re optimistic about the earnings recovery in 2021 and beyond, and outline five key takeaways for investors.

AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE

Earnings blew away expectations during the second quarter as the unprecedented COVID-19 lock downs early in the quarter, followed by the uncertainty and unevenness of the reopening and limited guidance from corporate leaders, caused analysts to badly miss with their forecasts. In the third quarter, analysts had more information and the environment included fewer twists and turns, which should have made predicting results much easier. Still, analysts were overly pessimistic by nearly the same margin, as earnings results far surpassed expectations.

Putting numbers to it, with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported quarterly results so far, S&P 500 earnings are tracking to a 7.5% year-over-year decline, roughly 14 percentage points better than September 30 estimates (source: Fact Set) [Figure 1]. Revenue is tracking to only a 1.7% year-over-year decline, a solid 1.9 percentage points above prior estimates.

November 9, 2020

MARKET-FRIENDLY ELECTION OUTCOME

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Tom Goulder, CFA, Senior Analyst, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

Heading into the election, polling data and market signals disagreed on how close the presidential election would be, with market signals calling the race much closer—which turned out to be accurate. Now that we have more clarity on the results of the election, we can review what we believe will be some of the key market implications going forward.

BIDEN WINS BUT SENATE YET TO BE DECIDED

Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States, defeating President Donald Trump in a tight race. Based on the polls and some market signals, the outcome of the presidential election may not have been much of a surprise.

The Senate was a different story. Conventional wisdom expected the Senate to go the same way as the top of the ticket. But the stronger-than-expected performance by some Senate Republicans considered vulnerable means that the Democrats will have to win both Georgia Senate seats in January runoffs—a tall task in a traditionally conservative state—to reach 50 seats and take control of the Senate (Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any tie). Here we focus on the most likely outcome—a split Congress under Biden.