October 5, 2020

MARKET RESPONSES TO ELECTION UNCERTAINTY

Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

Speculation has been increasing that the November election results may be delayed or disputed, or both. A contested election might affect financial markets in several ways. Also, the news that President Donald Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 may potentially impact markets as well.

NOTE ON PRESIDENT TRUMP’S COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS

While this Weekly Market Commentary was in production, we learned that President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. First and foremost, we wish the president and first lady a swift and full recovery. Obviously the news adds a layer of uncertainty to an already contentious election cycle.

The immediate market response has been relatively mild so far. US stocks were lower at open the morning of October 2, but some assets that are perceived to be more resilient in the face of a risk-off environment, such as Treasuries, gold, and the Japanese yen, have shown no real sign of added strength early on. The news adds to the election uncertainty, however. Trump will be unable to campaign in person during the quarantine period that he observes—and maybe longer if he exhibits more serious symptoms—which possibly could hurt his reelection chances. On the other hand, the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson saw his approval rating rise while he was fighting the infection.

From a market perspective, we think it’s better not to speculate on the election impact of the diagnosis. We do know two things: 1) The response to COVID-19 is very different from case to case, which means only time will tell how the virus may affect the president, and 2) the president and first lady will be monitored closely and will have access to some of the best care in the world, which improves the outlook for both of them.

September 28, 2020

CENTRAL BANK SEASON

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Scott Brown, CMT, Senior Analyst, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

The recent correction in the S&P 500 Index’s technology sector presents a unique challenge to markets following a historic stretch of outperformance as technology’s share of the market has ballooned in size. Despite September weakness in this sector that has dragged the broader market lower, we expect technology leadership to continue given supportive underlying fundamental and technical conditions.

A SEPTEMBER TO FORGET

During the COVID-19 pandemic, technology has played a curious role in mitigating downside during bouts of volatility, while also posting considerable outperformance when markets rebounded, as many viewed the sector as relatively well insulated from the economic effects of the virus. After a “melt-up” environment for tech during the month of August, the sector so far has corrected more than 12% from its prior high in September, a historically weak month for the S&P 500. Investors are asking if the weakness will continue.

FUNDAMENTALS ARE SUPPORTIVE

The question of whether technology’s strong performance since March has put it in bubble territory has received a lot of attention in the financial media as well as with investors. Although we acknowledge that some of the better-performing technology and technology-related stocks have been on an upward trajectory similar to that of the late 1990s until the recent sell-off, we don’t believe technology is in a bubble.

We would first point out how strong fundamentals are right now. Earnings estimates for the sector have already moved above their pre-pandemic highs. While there is risk that these expectations may not be achieved, the gap between technology sector earnings and earnings from the entire S&P 500—which includes technology— is impressive [Figure 1].

September 21, 2020

CENTRAL BANK SEASON

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Nick Pergakis, Analyst, LPL Financial

When seasons change, the major central banks meet. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all met in September to discuss their outlooks on the economy and monetary policy going forward. Key observations from the central bank meetings include maintaining policy while keeping an eye on COVID-19.

FEDERAL RESERVE

Expectations for major changes at the Federal Reserve (Fed) September meeting were low. The Fed had completed its framework review at the annual central bank symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August and announced its shift toward flexible average inflation targeting then. While no major policy decisions were made at the September meeting, the Fed did alter the language of its guidance to align with the change in inflation targeting, allowing for potentially higher inflation before it would consider raising rates. The Fed “dot plot,” a graphical projection of when Fed members expect to see higher rates, revealed that voting members expect rates to remain at the zero-bound until at least 2023. The Fed also continues to express concern for downside risks to the economy.

Although the Fed has reiterated that negative policy rates seen in Europe and Japan are not under consideration, adjustments to the policy rate are only one mechanism for further easing of financial conditions. The Fed also can provide additional support through adjustments to its asset purchase programs or changes to other available liquidity facilities. However, the current stance may leave the Fed vulnerable to being blindsided by a better-than-expected recovery, which may have longer-term implications on inflationary forces.

September 14, 2020

THE BULL CASE FOR STOCKS

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Markets have been on a wild ride in September so far, with a strong first two days of the month followed by one of the sharpest 10% corrections ever for the NASDAQ. The case can be made that stocks may move higher over the rest of 2020 despite a number of risks, including a possible increase in COVID-19 cases, heightened US-China tensions, and election uncertainty.

WILD RIDE

After virtually no volatility since March, market-watchers got a heavy dose of it with the recent three-day 10% correction in the NASDAQ—one of the fastest corrections ever, and the fastest ever from a record high. Historically, the NASDAQ has tended to rise after fast corrections from new highs [FIGURE 1]. Stocks were higher 6 and 12 months after those corrections more than 90% of the time going back 40 years, with the end of the 1990s bull market the glaring exception. Many of these examples took place during the technology boom in the late 1990s, but the history is still instructive

Even with the 4% drop in the S&P 500 Index over the four trading sessions last week, and the nearly 7% drop from September 3 to September 8, the index is still up from the March 23 lows and higher year to date, as of September 11, 2020.

September 8, 2020

TOP 10 INVESTOR QUESTIONS

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Many investors, our selves included, find it difficult to understand why stocks have done so well lately in such a challenging economic environment and COVID-19 still an ongoing threat. We heard that question quite a bit at our annual national conference for LPL financial professionals held virtually in late August. That isn’t the only question we’ve been getting recently, so we’ve compiled our top-10 investor questions and answers.

QUESTION #1: CAN STOCKS KEEP GOING HIGHER, CONSIDERING THE RISKS?

With the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% since the March lows and stocks pricing in an optimistic recovery in the economy and corporate profits, we believe stocks may be due for a pullback—and the drop that occurred September 3–4 may be the start of it. The S&P 500 is near our bull-case scenario of a fair-value target of more than 3,450 that we highlighted in our Midyear Outlook 2020 publication—and our base-case target of 3,300 is under review. We also expect a pickup in volatility ahead of the November election.

From a technical perspective, we may see a little more near-term upside in the 3,700 range, potentially helped by positive COVID-19 news, another fiscal stimulus package—we still expect another one of more than $1 trillion—and continued strength from stocks that have performed better in the pandemic, mostly technology stocks. On the downside, we would see technical support at around 3,200.

QUESTION #2: HOW WILL THE ELECTION IMPACT STOCKS AND THE ECONOMY?

Historically, stocks have generated positive returns under all political combinations in the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate, including Democratic and Republican sweeps. While this is a very important election, as they all are, as investors we want to keep any impact to the stock markets in perspective.

Strictly from a markets perspective, a potential Democratic sweep of the Senate and presidency possibly could bring higher corporate, individual, capital gains, and dividend tax rates that may be expected to translate into lower stock values, all else being equal. But it could also bring more fiscal spending, including an infrastructure package, and lower tariffs. A victory by President Donald Trump may help keep taxes low, but it also may lead to escalating tensions with China, more tariffs, and further decoupling of the trade relationship between the two countries, all of which could potentially lead to bouts of market volatility.

For more in-depth answers to this question, read our last two Weekly Market Commentaries in which we discuss the potential economic and market implications of wins by former Vice President Joe Biden and President Trump.

QUESTION #3: HOW CAN CURRENT STOCK VALUATIONS ARE JUSTIFIED?

The S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio (PE) based on estimated 2021 earnings is over 21, above the peak levels that historically have marked the end of bull markets (in the 18–19 range) and the long-term average of 15– 16. We acknowledge stock valuations are high. However, we don’t think they are irrational given: 1) the massive stimulus from the federal government and the Federal Reserve (Fed); 2) depressed interest rates that reduce the attractiveness of bonds and enhance the value of future corporate profits; 3) corporate profits are on the upswing with many winners in this environment; and 4) potential vaccine availability within the next 6 to 12 months.

QUESTION #4: WHAT TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION CHANGES HAVE YOU MADE RECENTLY?

We’re frequently asked when the decade-long leadership in growth-style stocks might reverse. At this point, despite the big drop September 3–4, we’re sticking with our preference for growth style until it becomes clearer that the US economic recovery is more durable, but we recognize growth stock valuations look stretched and value style will eventually have its day in the sun. The sharp sell-off in growth stocks recently was a reminder of what can happen when the rubber band gets stretched too far, though we believe fundamentals and technical still support leaning toward the growth style.

We have warmed up to small caps as the new bull market has taken hold, and we selectively added some exposure in our tactical model portfolios in August. On the sector side, our last move was to upgrade materials to positive in August on US dollar weakness and strong technical momentum; we downgraded financials to negative in a corresponding move.

3 Things to Know Regarding COVID-19 and Your Retirement

We all know that the coronavirus pandemic has thrown us for a loop emotionally, physically, and financially. Working from home has become the new normal, restaurants are slowly starting to reopen for indoor dining, and businesses everywhere are still trying to make ends meet and stay afloat. Not only has the pandemic created a new way of life for most Americans, but the pandemic has caused a lot of worry for Americans, especially regarding their retirement plans. In this blog, we are going to go over three of the most important things to know about how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected your retirement. Keep reading!

1. Social Security Won’t Cover All of Your Retirement

Now, it is a common belief that Social Security will cover you in retirement, however, this is not true. Social Security can help you pay for things in retirement, but especially with the current status of the pandemic, it will not cover all of your retirement, just some. In fact, Social Security “never designed to do this, and with a possible benefit cut on the horizon, it's safer to rely upon your personal savings for the bulk of your retirement expenses,” (Fox Business).

2. You May Retire Later Than You Expected

With the amount of people in our country losing their jobs or being furloughed, you may have realized that you might be working longer than you had anticipated. If you were planning to take out retirement funds early, you may want to reevaluate, as delaying retirement could mean more money for you once you actually reach your full retirement age, which varies depending on the year you were born. You can find use this website to determine your full retirement age here.

August 31, 2020

ELECTION PREVIEW PART II A TRUMP SECOND TERM: UPSIDE AND RISKS

Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Senior Analyst, LPL Financial

A second term for President Donald Trump would likely feature a continuation of the pro-growth policies from the first term of his administration, and importantly for financial markets, a continuation of the status quo. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and while Trump’s negotiating style has been unpredictable at times, his commitment to lower taxes and deregulation may provide a consistent, market-friendly policy environment. We look more closely at what a second term for Trump could mean for the economy and markets.

AFTER THE CONVENTIONS, ELECTION SEASON IN FULL SWING

With both the Democratic and Republican conventions now behind us and Election Day only nine weeks away, we’re following the August 24 Weekly Market Commentary analysis of a potential November win for former Vice President Joe Biden with a look at the potential market impact of a second term for President Trump.

We focus strictly on the market impact of the election, with the economy also a secondary concern, since that feeds into market impact. But our evaluation of the market impact is not a voting recommendation. There is always more at stake in elections than simply markets. These previews have been grounded in the facts, focusing on the upside and potential concerns of each candidate’s administration. If the upside doesn’t seem realistic, it can be dismissed, but we still think it’s useful to get a plausible version of the potential market upside (or lack of downside if that’s the best case) on the table.

MARKETS SIGNAL THE ELECTION REMAINS A COIN TOSS

We continue to believe the election remains a coin toss. US presidential elections consistently have been close. As discussed last week, four of the past five elections have been decided by less than a 5% margin in the popular vote, so a landslide victory for either candidate appears unlikely. Although early polling data appears to show Biden as the front runner, we are also continuing to follow market signals, which currently suggest an incumbent victory.

As we mentioned last week, how the S&P 500 Index performs in the three months leading up to the election has been a good predictor for who wins the White House, whether it reflects the state of the economy or because it signals the greater uncertainty that comes with a change in party [FIGURE 1]. A positive market over this period may signal an increased likelihood that the incumbent party may win, while stock market losses during the same period have tended to predict an opposition party win. The stock market returns in the three months leading up to the election have correctly predicted the election result every time since 1984, and 87% of the time since 1928. Since the clock started ticking on this indicator August 3, the S&P 500 has been up almost 6% and at fresh record highs, clearly favoring Trump.

August 24, 2020

ELECTION PREVIEW PART I: A BIDEN PRESIDENCY—UPSIDE AND RISKS

Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

While a potential Biden presidency may mean a shift from some pro-growth policies of the Trump administration, it’s possible any negative market impact may be muted. Economic forces tend to dominate policy, though policy still matters, and historically, markets and the economy have shown little preference for either Republican or Democratic leadership. While there are risks associated with potentially higher taxes and increased regulation, and specific industries may experience a meaningful impact from policy shifts, for markets overall, there’s a real possibility that it may be just business as usual.

ELECTION FAST APPROACHING

With the Democratic convention behind us, the Republican convention this week, and Election Day only 10 weeks away, we thought it was time to take a closer look at the potential market impact of the election. Now that former Vice President Joe Biden has been formally nominated, we’ll look at the potential market impact of a Biden presidency this week. Next week, after the conclusion of the Republican convention, we’ll look at the potential impact of a second term for President Donald Trump.

Here’s how we’re going to go about it. First, as always, our concern is strictly the market impact of either party winning the White House, with the economy a secondary concern, since that feeds into market impact. But our evaluation of the market impact is not a voting recommendation. There is always more at stake in elections than simply markets. Second, each of these election previews, while grounded in the facts, will focus on the upside of each candidate, while also touching on potential concerns. If the upside doesn’t seem realistic, it can be dismissed, but we still think it’s useful to get a plausible version of the potential market upside (or lack of downside, if that’s the best case) on the table.

EARLY DATA FAVORS BIDEN, BUT WE WOULD STILL CALL IT A COIN TOSS

We believe the best way to approach the election at this point is to consider it a coin toss. The margin of victory in the popular vote has been under 5% in four of the last five elections, and in two of those elections the outcome in the Electoral College differed from the popular vote. That’s not meant to criticize the Electoral College—it just highlights how close our elections have become. A 5% difference is small enough that an election can easily swing one way or the other based on what happens in the months and weeks before the election—and there are scenarios in which even a 5% difference in the popular vote could mean a different outcome in the Electoral College.

Some of the major factors potentially supporting each candidate, in our view, include:

•             The power of incumbency favors Trump. (Presidential incumbents win about 70% of the time.)

•             Electoral College dynamics favor Trump.

•             Enthusiasm toward one’s own candidate favors Trump, although the gap is narrowing.

•             Polls currently favor Biden.

•             The president’s approval rating favors Biden.

•             The economy favors Biden, but circumstances are unusual.

•             Enthusiasm to vote against the opposite party’s candidate favors Biden, but not surprisingly,  

               that’s not necessarily a big driver of turnout.

We also follow market signals. We have often highlighted that S&P 500 Index performance three months leading up to the election has had predictive value for who wins the White House, whether it’s because it reflects the state of the economy or it signals the greater uncertainty that comes with a change in party. A positive market over that time period historically has signaled an increased likelihood that the incumbent party wins. The clock started ticking on that indicator August 3. So far the S&P 500 is up just a few percentage points, potentially favoring Trump, but volatility could quickly lead to a reversal.

Our friends at Strategas Research Partners have also put together a basket of stocks likely to benefit from a Trump or Biden presidency. Since early June, the Biden portfolio has been outperforming the Trump portfolio, though we acknowledge these stocks are driven by other factors as well.

The Senate also is being closely watched this election. If Trump wins reelection, the Republicans may very likely hold their Senate majority, currently at 53–47. With Democratic Senator Doug Jones from Alabama unlikely to hold on to his seat based on the latest polling data, Democrats would have to defeat a net of four Republican incumbents in addition to a Jones loss to take control of the Senate if Biden wins. (If the Senate vote is tied, the vice president breaks the tie.) We would put the likelihood of the Democrats taking the Senate if Biden wins the presidency at well over 50%.

August 17, 2020

5 EARNINGS SEASON TAKEAWAYS

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial

Corporate America delivered on expectations and then some during a second quarter earnings season that some are calling the biggest upside surprise ever. We recap the results, share five key takeaways for investors, and discuss our near-term outlook for stocks with the S&P 500 Index near record highs.

MUCH BETTER RESULTS THAN ANTICIPATED

Earnings blew away expectations that ended up being way too low. With 92% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported results, the average upside surprise has been 22%, which we believe is the highest ever recorded going back several decades. At 82%, the percentage of S&P 500 companies that beat earnings targets is the highest since FactSet began tracking that statistic in 2008. Earnings are still tracking to a significant 33% year-over-year decline, but that’s certainly better than the 45% decline reflected in analysts’ estimates when reporting season began (source: FactSet).

WHY WERE ESTIMATES OFF BY SO MUCH?

We think estimates were  off because analysts may have been guessing in many cases because of the lack of guidance from companies’ management teams. Other reasons we think played a role include:

•             Analysts underestimated companies’ ability to cut costs.

•             Analysts were surprised by the US economy’s ability to bounce back as states reopened.

•             Analysts underestimated the size and impact of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

•             US dollar weakness provided an unexpected tailwind for multinationals’ profits.

•             Companies that provided guidance had every reason to be conservative, given the uncertainty.

Results were good enough relative to expectations to prompt us to raise our 2020 S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimated range to $125–$130 from $120–$125, as we noted in our August Global Portfolio Strategy publication [FIGURE 1]. Stocks are taking cues from earnings estimates in 2021 and beyond, based on currently elevated valuations, but a potentially higher base in 2020 may improve prospects for 2021 earnings.