Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
Corporate America has capped off an outstanding 2021 with an excellent fourth quarter earnings season so far. Entering 2021, the consensus estimate for S&P 500 Index earnings per share (EPS) was less than $170. Now with fourth quarter results mostly in the books, that number is 22% higher at $208. Here we recap another solid fourth quarter earnings season and discuss what the results could mean for earnings growth and stock market performance in 2022.
In our earnings preview on January 10, we noted that we welcomed a shift from the macro to the micro. Well, given the path of inflation, the resulting dramatic shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, and the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, that shift hasn’t really happened. However, when we turn our attention away from macro headlines to corporate America, we find that companies have again showcased their ability to effectively manage through the pandemic’s challenges, notably supply chain disruptions and labor and materials shortages that have pushed costs higher.
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA, Asset Allocation Strategist, LPL Financial
With tax season quickly approaching, it’s important to know about the deadlines, new economic relief measures, deductions, and tax brackets. Continue reading for what you need to know about the 2022 tax season.
Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
Scott Brown, CMT, Technical Market Strategist, LPL Financial
The near-10% correction in the S&P 500 Index and even larger drawdown in the Nasdaq have
gotten a lot of attention this year. What hasn’t gotten as much attention—and maybe surprising to
some—is the relative resilience in equity markets outside the U.S. In our special Winter Olympics
edition of the Weekly Market Commentary, we hand out medals to the U.S., developed
international, and emerging markets. Who do we think will get the gold? Read on to find out.
It’s been a rough start to the year for U.S. stocks with some stiff headwinds. The path of the
S&P 500 in January looked like something Mikaela Shiffrin might ski on given the steepness of
the decline with twists and turns. Fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be behind the
curve in its inflation battle got most of the blame for the market selloff, while a few high-profile
earnings misses—Meta (Facebook) being the latest—have added to investors’ anxiety levels.
Meanwhile, the international equity markets have held up relatively well. The S&P 500 Index is
down 5.6% year to date, outrun by the 3.8% and 0.9% declines in the MSCI EAFE Index
(developed international equities) and the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index. To assess
which regional market might come out on top at the end of the 2022 competition, we take a
look at global fundamentals, valuations, and technicals.
Starting with economic growth outlooks, emerging markets may produce the fastest gross
domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022, but it could be a close finish [Figure 1].
If you’ve spent more than five minutes on a kid’s television network, you’ve seen just how inundated young kids are with commercials for everything from the latest gadget, to some dreadful snack that features something gooey and/or messy. It’s also safe to bet that many of these kids run to their parents, wanting to buy some or all of these items.
Jason Hoody, CFA, Head of Investment Manager Research & Sustainable Investing Research, LPL Financial
Sustainable investing hit several milestones in 2021, but continued to attract its critics. Below we look at how sustainable investing fits within the broader concept of sustainability, its growth during 2021, and an implementation framework that has been helpful for many. A well diversified sustainable investing portfolio doesn’t mean that an investor has to make a choice between achieving market-like returns and being an aware social and environmental steward.
Market volatility has been the dominant story for many investors in early 2022, but even as we focus on near term events it’s important to continue to track important market trends. Sustainable investing has become a significant theme in how many investors choose to direct some or all of their capital, choosing to emphasize businesses that show they’re in it for the long term. The space has been evolving as it continues to meet its critics and address the challenges that come with growth, with several important developments in 2021.
The concept of sustainability can easily get bogged down in confusing definitions and minutia. Most simply, sustainability is humanity meeting its current needs without overburdening the natural environment or future generations. Environmental sustainability refers to maintaining the balance of natural systems and that natural resources are consumed at a rate that can be replenished. Social sustainability refers to a minimum standard of basic necessities and that human rights is afforded to all people. As shown below, sustainability includes action by individuals, companies, governments, and increasingly investors.
Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
After a tough start for stocks in 2022, investors are looking for reasons to expect a rebound. After more than doubling off the pandemic lows in March 2020, without anything more than a 5% pullback in 2021, stocks probably needed a break. That doesn’t, however, make this dip feel much more comfortable. Here we cite some reasons we don’t expect this selloff to go a lot further, though a 10% drawdown in the S&P 500 seems reasonable to expect.
It’s been a rough few weeks for the stock market. Fears of rising rates and the Federal Reserve pulling back its stimulus more aggressively than previously anticipated to fight high inflation have caused most of the market jitters, though earnings season—albeit in the very early stages—hasn’t helped either.
The pain has been particularly acute for the many growth stocks that make up the Nasdaq Composite, which has corrected 14% from its November 2021 high. This is the third worst start to a year ever for the Nasdaq (down 10% year to date), though it was positive the rest of the month the last five times it was down 5% or more year to date through January 20 (thank you to our friends at Bespoke Investment Group for that nugget).
Small caps have been hit even harder, with the Russell 2000 Index nearly in bear market territory with its 18% decline since November 8, 2021—though the higher quality S&P 600 small cap index has fared better in losing 12% during this period.
So what might turn this market around? Stabilization in interest rates would help. The 10-year Treasury yield’s inability to break through 1.9% last week and subsequent dip below 1.8% is a good start. Stock valuations are interest rate sensitive and harder to justify if bond yields go much higher (the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 using the 2022 consensus estimate for earnings per share is currently a touch below 20).
On inflation, clearly a key risk for markets right now, the data likely won’t change much in January when it’s reported in February. However, we could soon see more evidence of easing supply chain bottlenecks and more people jumping into the workforce as COVID-19 disruptions hopefully fade (there are a near-record 10.5 million open jobs in the U.S. now compared to less than 7 million pre-pandemic in December of 2019). When the market begins to gain more confidence that inflation will start coming down, hopefully as winter turns to spring, inflation may turn from stock market detractor to a contributor. A Fed meeting this week without any negative surprises would also help. Stable or lower oil prices would help as well.
What about earnings as a potential catalyst? As we suggested in our 2022 Outlook: Passing the Baton, earnings growth would likely be the primary source of stock market gains this year. The downward pressure on stock valuations from higher interest rates makes that more likely.
In Figure 1 we have decomposed annual returns for the S&P 500 into earnings growth, valuation changes, and dividend yield. During 2019 and 2020, when the S&P 500 returned 24.7% annualized (55.7% cumulative), increases in valuations drove much of the gains. That changed last year when earnings rose an estimated 50% and valuations contracted. We expect 2022 to look more like the mid-cycle mid-2000s or mid-2010s with more modest returns, more contributions from earnings growth and dividends, and little, if any, contribution from valuation.
Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered a massive hawkish shift, causing a bit more stock market volatility recently. But how worried should investors be? Here we take a look back at historical performance for stocks before, after, and much after initial Fed rate hikes to help reassure any nervous investors out there. We also take a quick look at what the Fed pivot could mean for growth/value and large cap/small cap trends given the maturing business cycle.
With the recent pivot by Jay Powell and Company at the Fed, rate hikes have been getting a lot of attention. And rightly so, given the bond market has gone from pricing in one 2022 rate hike just a few months ago to now pricing in three to four. That’s one of the most dramatic hawkish shifts by the Fed in a short period of time that we’ve ever seen, so some market jitters are not surprising.
A look back at history may help calm some investors’ jitters around the start of Fed rate hikes. As we wrote in our Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton, stocks tend to do well leading up to initial Fed rate hikes. There we highlighted the average 15% gain during the 12 months ahead of the initial hike of an economic cycle, including gains in all nine cases back more than 60 years. This makes sense given it takes a strengthening economy to create the job gains and inflation the Fed needs to see to take away the punchbowl. We see the first rate hike coming in either March or May, and with the S&P 500 Index up nearly 20% since March of 2021, and more than 10% since May 2021, those gains may already have occurred.
Looking beyond the initial hike, on our LPL Research blog last week we looked at how stocks performed during various periods after the Fed starts to hike rates. The story is similar, with the S&P 500 up an average of 7.5% six months later and 10.8% over the next 12 months historically. Stock were up all eight times one year after those initial hikes going back to the early 1980s. So based on history, the start of a rate hiking campaign by the Fed should not be too worrisome for investors.
But what does the hike mean further out, say 2023 and beyond? In Outlook 2022, we noted that initial Fed rate hikes can help us mark where the economy is in its cycle. The start of rate hikes typically happens in the early-to-middle stages of the cycle, where stocks historically see solid gains as we are forecasting for 2022.
But we can extend this exercise further and look at how stocks have done from the initial rate hike of a cycle until the end of the accompanying bull market, as we have done in [Figure 1]. Those first rate hikes have been followed by an average gain of 67% before the subsequent bull market peak. For those keeping score at home, that would take the S&P 500 to over 7,700 (no, that is not a forecast) before the next 20% or more decline.
On average, after rate hikes start, bull markets have run for about three to four years (or 40 more months) before peaking, with the longest in the late 1990s at six years (72 months) between the 1994 hike and the bull market top in March of 2000.
Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist, LPL Financial
Corporate America has been on quite a run. Coming into 2021, S&P 500 Index companies were expected to generate less than $170 in earnings per share. As 2022 begins, it looks like that number may end up higher than the latest LPL Research estimate of $205, one of the biggest earnings upside surprises ever and a big reason why stocks did so well last year. But 2021 earnings are not yet fully in the books. We have one more quarter to go, which we preview here.
Fourth quarter earnings season kicks off this week with earnings from several big financials, including BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo reporting on Friday, January 14. This week just seven S&P 500 constituents report, but another 40 will announce results the following week (January 17-21) and 99 the week after that (January 24-28).
We welcome the shift from the macro to the micro where companies can continue to showcase their ability to effectively manage through the pandemic challenges, notably the supply chain disruptions and labor and materials shortages that are pushing costs higher.
We expect another good earnings season overall in which companies continue to beat expectations in aggregate and produce solid growth. Consensus estimates are calling for a year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings in the fourth quarter of about 22% [Figure 1]. The long-term average upside surprise of around five percentage points makes 27% a reasonable target, but given earnings beat estimates by 12 percentage points last quarter, the number could be higher. Earnings growth approaching 30%, though slower than the third quarter’s nearly 40% clip, would be impressive given the challenging operating environment.
We see several reasons to remain optimistic for this earnings season. First, estimates have been rising. Since the end of October 2021, the consensus estimate for fourth quarter S&P 500 EPS has increased 3.3%.
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